【stake your day】Bet Against Duke? Not a Chance in This Final Four

No matter where you turn, from college basketball analysts to betting experts, Duke is favored to win the national title.

The Blue Devils were given odds as short as -110 once the all-chalk Final Four was finalized. They’re facing a Houston team that’s on a 17-game winning streak, then whichever SEC representative emerges from the Florida-Auburn game.

Why would I play the contrarian for the heck of it? I just saw Duke with my own eyes. Give me the Dukies over the field.

An average college fan knows about the KenPom stat I mentioned yesterday—how these Final Four teams own four of the 10 best KenPom adjusted efficiency ratings of all time. But I don’t think we’re making enough of a different factoid.

Duke could become the first team in KenPom.com’s history (since 1997) to finish with an adjusted offensive rating above 130 points per 100 possessions. They’re at 130.1 through the Elite Eight.

The Blue Devils’ efficiency was evident when I covered them in the East Regional in Newark. Cooper Flagg is a menace anywhere on the court, but they also boast an unstoppable lob threat in Khaman Maluach, who racked up more dunks than I could count, and three 40% 3-point shooters in the starting five—Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and Sion James.

The main argument I’ve seen in favor of Houston has to do with its experience and defensive might. After all, this is a matchup between the No. 1 KenPom offense and the No. 1 defense, and Houston’s roster is filled with fourth- and fifth-year players who theoretically will be more comfortable under the lights than Duke’s freshman trio of Flagg, Knueppel and Maluach.

I’ve supported this Houston team all season, and I would take the Cougars in any other matchup—just not this one. Duke has a smothering defense of its own, one I trust more than Houston’s offense.

The Duke players love to play defense, something you can’t say about every freshman-heavy lineup. While Duke has shot at least 50% in all four tournament games thus far, it has also held three of those opponents below 37% from the field, with Arizona and Caleb Love being the only exceptions. The Blue Devils deflated a high-powered Alabama offense like a balloon; a Houston team that has scored in the 60s each of the last two games won’t bother them.

Florida has had a terrific year but needed a miracle to get past Texas Tech. Auburn had a bumpy finish to the regular season, and it feels like you’re hearing about a Johni Broome injury every three games. Both teams have the top-end talent to win a championship almost any season, but Duke’s depth and full rotation are still superior.

Bonus prediction: If you’re sick of chalk, check out the women’s Final Four, which is much more diverse than the men’s—with three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2. That No. 2 belongs to UConn, which, despite its seeding, is the highest-rated team on the metrics site BartTorvik.com. I like Paige Bueckers, Sarah Strong and the Huskies to win the title—a real triumph for underdogs everywhere.